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Thursday, October 1, 2009

What about the Driver Market for 2010

Everyone's been waiting for Fernando to be announced at Ferrari. Now that he has, the driver market can open for a manic few weeks of business...


It won't be just F1 news reporters, long weary of publishing yes-he-will-but-it-is-not-official-yet briefings, who will be relieved that Fernando Alonso's transfer to Ferrari has finally been announced. Following the overdue confirmation that the Spaniard will definitely be clad in red next season, the rest of the 2010 driver market, which has effectively been closed down pending the announcement from Maranello, can finally declare itself open for business.

And with time pressing, and a staggering number of deals still to be finalised, business will be brisk.

The first major upshot of Alonso's switch to Ferrari will be the transfer of the driver he is replacing, Kimi Raikkonen, back to McLaren. Though his imminent return to Woking will be depicted as something as a surprise - not least as it contradicts the impression that McLaren are now a one-driver team - the move makes logical sense for both parties. McLaren are the best option available to the jilted Raikkonen and, such is the potential strength of the Alonso-Ferrari partnership, McLaren have no option but to pursue the best available replacement for Heikki Kovalainen regardless of the complications that might ensue.

While 2010 will inevitably be billed as Hamilton v Alonso, Raikkonen has the obvious potential to capitalise on their rivalry by sneaking up on the rails - just as he did so to win the 2007 championship.

Raikkonen is familiar with the McLaren surrounds and working practices, too laidback to be bothered by any concerns of pro-Hamilton leanings, and will have a point to prove against Ferrari. At the very least, he will be the inspiring in-house competition for Hamilton that Kovalainen couldn't be.

Like many of his peers, Kovalainen's future is unclear and, if he is to stay in the sport, he'll be hoping to land either at Williams or Renault before falling to the depths of one of the three new teams joining the 2010 grid.

With Nico Rosberg widely expected to replace Rubens Barrichello at Brawn in order to smooth Mercedes' association with the team, Williams will surely have two new drivers for 2010. With Toyota's supply of engines being withdrawn, the team have no reason to retain the deeply disappointing Kazuki Nakajima.

As Robert Kubica is believed to have agreed to join Renault, Barrichello and Nico Hulkenberg are the favourites to take over driving duties at Grove. However, as well as Kovalainen, Jenson Button has also been linked with Williams and it is by no means certain that he will remain at Brawn for another season despite his position at the top of the drivers' standings.

Negotiations are still ongoing over a new deal after Button took a 50% pay cut at the start of the season and a week ago his manager, Richard Goddard, was quoted as saying: "When we signed the revised contract last year, we did so in the knowledge that if things went well for the team, they would go well for Jenson for next year. We are not being greedy by looking to get what they are paid. All we expect is for Jenson to be paid on the scale that he was last year before Honda left."

The smart money remains on Button and Brawn reaching a compromise but the situation is certainly intriguing. As the World Champion (as he will almost certainly be), he'll be a considerable catch. Could he return to Williams despite the unedifying and costly legal fight over the validity of his contract for the 2004 season? It's doubtful but stranger things have happened in F1.

Meanwhile, the departure of Flavio Briatore has removed one obstacle from Kovalainen's path back to Renault, though much the same could be said of Jarno Trulli if he exits Toyota. Either way Roman Grosjean looks set for a demotion when Renault make their announcement next week.

Nor should Nick Heidfeld be forgotten. Unless the current BMW-badged team are given an unexpected reprieve, the veteran German will be watching intently how the pieces fall together at Brawn, Renault and Williams. So too will Timo Glock following renewed speculation about Toyota's future in the sport. His podium in Singapore couldn't have been better timed. It's certainly not inconceivable that, with some prompting from Mercedes, two Germans will appointed at Brawn.

Not that the driver market needs the added complication of nationalistic considerations. With 14 teams aiming to be on next season's grid and only two, Red Bull and Ferrari, so far confirming their 2010 driver line-up, there remains a bewildering number of permutations yet to be settled. Among those drivers looking to make a return to the sport are Taku Sato, Anthony Davidson, Christian Klien, Tonio Liuzzi and Jacques Villeneuve. The 1997 World Champion was advertising his availability in the Singapore paddock last weekend but sounded perplexed by what he encountered.

Asked to rate his chances of making a comeback by Autosport, Villeneuve responded: "I don't know. Some days it is very high and some days it is very low. It is a moving sand right now. It is really strange." With the market in an unprecedented state of flux, the Canadian's confusion and uncertainty will not be unique.

And there's one other remarkable potential twist in the tale to be pondered: Nelson Piquet junior.

He couldn't return, you say? Well, this is called the silly season for a reason...

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